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a bit o' skepticism for the peakoilers
March 16, 2008 | 08:11 AM

I've heard Peak Oil theories too. But to blame it for the runup in oil prices is a bit simplistic. Yes, oil field discoveries are far and few between now - but there are some; a large field was recently found off the coast of Brazil. Russia has a fair bit of natural gas. Supply is keeping up with demand, but just barely. Plus, the falling dollar is not helping as people with large quantities of cash to keep track of are putting it into gold and oil as inflation hedges. And we won't even get into oil futures speculation. It's a complex place out there.

Population stabilization and consumption reduction are also excellent ideas, but will take a Very Long Time to enact. Fifty years of inefficent land use patterns here on the mainland (read: suburbs) will take time to clear out, but it's already starting as the cities are still in decent shape, while the suburbs are in foreclosure purgatory. Population stabilization takes even longer than that. If the resources get iffy before a rational approach can be taken - and we won't even discuss the political challenges involved with that - then the catastrophes are unfortunately inevitable.

sluggysan