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Rob Report
2050 Vision
Seeing Hawai`i’s future in the crystal ball

by By Rob Parsons

May 10, 2007

A vision without a plan is just a dream.

A plan without a vision is just drudgery. But a vision with a plan can

change the world.

–Proverb







Two community meetings last week invited Maui's citizens to share

their ideas and vision for the Hawai`i 2050 Sustainability Task Force.

While some of us have a hard time planning for next week or next month,

others among us may relish the opportunity to help envision a future

that will hopefully improve on our present day existence. About 130

people took part in the process.

The exercise is not new. Strategic plans and long range plans abound

in businesses, organizations and government agencies. Even now the Maui

County General Plan Advisory Committee is preparing to revise

guidelines that may (or may not) direct our growth and development over

the next two decades.

In 2003, Focus Maui Nui asked 1,700 residents, more than one percent

of our population, to discuss their values and priorities. Five key

strategies for action evolved from that process. "Overwhelmingly,

participants in Focus Maui Nui expressed a sense of optimism that the

islands could become a model for clean, sustainable living and a place

where every child could grow to lead a successful and productive life

amongst family on the islands," touts the Focus Maui Nui website.

But to what extent do our utopian plans and dreams actually become

tangible? As one veteran community activist said of the Hawai`i 2050

meetings, "I am concerned that we will end up with a report that spends

more time on a shelf than being implemented."

In 2005 the state Legislature created the Hawai`i 2050

Sustainability Task Force, and supports it with $1.4 million in

funding. The stated goal is to involve as many people as possible in

the state's long-range planning process and to provide input by the end

of this year for legislative review in the 2008 session. The final

Hawai`i 2050 plan will complement, rather than replace, existing

planning laws and processes.

Hawai`i 2050 had a unique kickoff event last August at the Dole

Cannery building in Honolulu. More than 500 people attended, with at

least 50 each from the Big Island, Kauai and Maui.

To help shake participants out of their traditional thinking and

beliefs, students from the Hawai`i Research Center for Future

Studies—under the direction of pioneer futurist, Jim Dator—acted out

four possible future scenarios.

One scenario portrayed Hawai`i under a military dictatorship, with a

full-blooded Hawaiian designated as king. Tourism and consumerism are

remembered as past extravagances, and money and credit have vanished.

Bartering of goods and labor provides the economy's foundation.

A second alternative is something of an economic success story, with

tourism the main economic driver. Governance is made up of

representatives from the multi-national corporations that run the

tourist industry. Most food is genetically modified and nuclear plants

on all islands provide ample electricity and desalinized water to

support four million residents.

A third future scenario depicted local self-sufficiency, resulting

from the end of cheap and abundant energy, sea-level rise, global

economic collapse and pandemics. There's no more mass tourism.

Fertility has been reduced and in-migration is strictly controlled.

Values derived largely from Hawaiian culture govern all life and social

interaction.

The fourth imagined future differed greatly from the others, in that

the definition of "humans" had changed profoundly. Technological

revolutions led to artificial intelligence and cyborg modification of

brain and body. Wars, injustice, oppression and environmental

devastation are things of the past. The old spaceship launch pad at

South Point, Hawai`i is now a major distribution center, teleporting

goods across the globe and to off-Earth settlements.

While none of the four scenarios is much like the present, the seeds

for each can be found in the present. The point of the exercise was to

challenge existing assumptions and to help people clarify and dream of

the future they want to face, and want next generations to live in.

Or put another way, how can we recognize the limitations and

challenges of our present societal system, design a "preferred future"

that addresses and corrects the course we're on, and then connect our

present to that future?

Albert Einstein once said, "I never think of the future—it comes

soon enough." But he is better known for his quote, "We can't solve

problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created

them."

With that in mind, it may be useful to look at the support structure

for our long-range planning processes. The Maui Economic Development

Board guides Focus Maui Nui, which in turn organized and hosted the

Hawai`i 2050 meetings on Maui. The Maui 2050 Task Force representatives

include the Chamber of Commerce President, its past president, the

president of a real estate development firm and the Maui County

Planning Director.

The construct appears weighted on the side of economic interests.

We've heard so many times that "our environment is our economy" that

it's hard to understand why there isn't at least one environmental

representative on the 25-member task force. After all, protecting the

natural environment ranked second on the Focus Maui Nui priority list,

right after improving education.

In any case, why don't we have a better education system, protected

and restored natural resources, abundant alternative energy, vibrant

local agricultural opportunities and universal health care? It seems

that we always run up against roadblocks formed from the existing

economic power structure and the government bureaucracy dutifully

supporting it.

Our federal government spends tax dollars in obscene amounts on a

grossly obese military budget under the guise of national security, but

at the expense of addressing widespread domestic issues.

Locally, we continue to fatten the coffers of tourism, our strongest

industry. The Hawai`i Tourism Authority (HTA), which has an annual

budget nearing $60 million, now apportions a few million dollars worth

of grants to Cultural Heritage Tourism and Eco-Tourism endeavors.

But that came about only after a 2002 Supreme Court challenge by the

Hawai`i Sierra Club. The environmental group maintained that the HTA's

wish to increase tourism two percent every year would broadly impact

local resources, and should require an Environmental Impact Statement,

triggered by the use of public funds. The court ultimately ruled that

Sierra Club did not have legal standing to challenge, but the issues

saw wide discussion and today environmental groups have a seat at the

table at HTA in the form of a Natural Resources Advisory Group.

On Maui, the County Council's annual budget review can be marked by

missives from Kihei community activist and volunteer Buck Joiner,

lambasting the County's awarding of nearly $4 million (and $3.4 million

from the state) to the Maui Visitors Bureau.

"You will hear sustainability preached statewide, at Focus Maui Nui,

by the mayor and council members," says Joiner. "Maui needs a dairy, an

egg farm and a pineapple operation. Did the county provide money to

keep any in operation? No. Instead it gives $4 million to the richest,

most successful industry on Maui, the exact opposite of

sustainability."

The Maui County budget is complete and ready for the mayor's

signature. For the first time ever, it has topped the half

billion-dollar mark. How much of that is allocated for education and

environmental protection, the top two Focus Maui Nui priorities?

Not enough.



There are many definitions of sustainability. One is that

sustainability enables islanders to satisfy their basic needs and enjoy

a better quality of life without compromising future generations, while

living within the limits of the natural environment.

Sustainable communities, environment, economies and quality of life

won't just happen. They need our collective input and spirit to correct

the state's heavy reliance on imported food, energy and dollars.

Perhaps Mahatma Gandhi said it best: "You must be the change you wish

to see in the world." MTW